There are many metaphors that have been used over the decades to explain Canada’s experience living next to our American neighbours. In the past decade, some more colourful and poignant ones have come to the fore, which have spoken to the uncertainty and tenor of the world today. But for me, the best metaphor continues to be the Canadian mouse living next to the American elephant.
Any mouse living next to an elephant must always be on guard and aware of what their neighbour is doing. That’s not only because of the huge difference in size and the implications that come with that, but also the fact that elephants barely ever take notice of the mice in their vicinity as they stomp around the yard. Those facts fit the Canadian experience to a “T,” and when times are good, they aren’t that much of a worry. Yes, you need to pay attention, but as long as the elephant is calm, rational and in good spirits, life can be good for the mice living in their shadows.
But we aren’t living in such times, and the results of Tuesday's Presidential election stateside could make matters that much worse for Canadians from coast to coast to coast. It’s a bit fitting that the major reason for that uncertainty comes from the person at the head of the Presidential ticket for the party whose very symbol is the elephant, Donald Trump. The first Trump presidency was one that many Canadian businesses and workers felt the brunt of, right up until the very end in 2020. Whether it was aggressive trade policy that hurt many Canadian sectors, Mr. Trump’s approach to foreign affairs or even just the general unsettling it created, Canadians needed to be on guard and awake as the Trump elephant stomped around erratically and forcefully.
Somehow, we came through that four-year period okay, but the same cannot be guaranteed of a second Trump term. The threats for Canadian business, industries, governments, and general good order from a re-elected Donald Trump are numerous and clear to see. All you need to do is listen to his speeches and he clearly lays them out. Just as one example, he’s promising to implement trade tariffs of up to 20% on everything the United States imports from every country on Earth, including Canada. A recent report from TD Bank Economics stated that a 10% across-the-board tariff would hit the Canadian economy hard, meaning a real GDP would fall around 2.4% over 2 years.
That would have a devastating effect on all sectors of our economy, hitting all regions. But as the TD report points out, even if Canada were to somehow avoid blanket tariffs, it’s likely that those tariffs against other nations will drag down the U.S. economy, disrupt supply chains, and stoke inflation, all of which would hurt Canadian businesses and the people they employ.
If you don’t want to take TD Bank’s word for it, you can point to the Trump campaign itself and their surrogate Elon Musk, who Trump himself has said he’d want to appoint as his “Secretary of Budget-Cutting” if he won. At recent campaign events and on his own Twitter account, Mr. Musk has been clear that Trump’s policies on tariffs and budget cuts will hurt. He’s openly telling supporters to “expect economic chaos, a crashing stock market and financial “hardship” — albeit only “temporary” — if Trump wins.”
Because our economy and its health is closely linked to the American economy, that spells potential bad news for Canadians and will leave a Canadian government of any stripe with potential crises to handle. And all of that would likely happen before the renegotiation of CUSMA, which would be up for discussion during that presidential term.
While there are many potential economic concerns and issues that would be created by Trump’s proposed policies, there are other concerns that could cause great problems for Canada. Donald Trump has already been very clear about his feelings towards NATO, to the point where our NATO allies are trying to “Trump-proof” the organization to ensure the alliance survives. Trump’s affinity for foes like Russia’s Vladimir Putin are well known, and he has even gone so far as to say he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that doesn’t meet spending guidelines on defense.
Umm Canadians, we fit that description right now, and we share an arctic border with Russia, who is becoming more aggressive in that region. The potential disintegration of the strongest military alliance the World has ever known would not only destabilize nations and economies across the World, but it would also remove the greatest umbrella of protection that we have depended on. That could potentially not only force the Canadian government to change spending patterns fast, but it could also expose our country to greater instability that will hurt not only our security, but everything else that security affords us.
Some people will say that all of this doesn’t matter and that we’re all over-reacting. They point to Mr. Trump’s first term in office and say “Hey, he didn’t do that stuff then” and assume that he won’t now. But that brings us to the third and probably most important risk for Canada, Trump unbowed. Mr. Trump and those around him have made it clear that they have learned lessons from that first term, and how to sideline those who ensured the guardrails of democracy held. Just because Mr. Trump failed to do some of those things last time doesn’t mean he will fail this time if given the chance. A Donald Trump, unchained by democratic, moral, and constitutional norms, could succeed where Trump 45 failed. That is not only a threat and a worry for Americans and those who call the United States home, which is also a threat for the neighbours next door.
Now this isn’t to say that there wouldn’t be issues with a Kamala Harris administration, if she were to win. As there have been throughout our collective history as neighbours, we’ve always had disputes and disagreements that have required dialogue and unique solutions to work them out. But those issues pale in comparison to what Mr. Trump is proposing and saying aloud to anyone who will listen.
One of the major reasons why Canada has succeeded and thrived as a country is because of the general stability we have had in our neighbourhood. We have been generally safe from wars on our own shores, and we’ve had the protection of the largest and best equipped economy and armed forces on Earth next door. As much as the United States has benefitted from access to our abundant natural resources, we have benefitted from being next to and allied with the World's only superpower for the past many decades.
That stability in governance and relative temperament has helped make Canada what it is today. If that stability were to go away, with a new American government that goes full “America First,” turns on its allies and potentially turns on its own people, it can’t help but be bad for Canada, regardless of political views. For all our own political disagreement and fights we have here at home, the results of the American vote on Tuesday can easily trump all of that and force a whole new set of concerns onto our agenda that we will need to confront. So like the rest of the World, we will watch the results come in with keen interest and hope that when the dust settles, that we neighbouring mice will not have a lot of stomping elephants to worry about.
