Here at Niipaawi Strategies, we tend to look forward to events like the release of a Fall Economic Statement, or “FES” as it’s commonly referred to in Ottawa. On days when those events happen, we have our usual routine set for reviewing these budgetary documents and passing the most vital information on to our clients. Even though these days many of the highlights of these statements are leaked to the media ahead of time, it’s usually an intense day as we take in these dense fiscal documents and make sense of them all.
Yesterday was supposed to be one of those days for us, as the Finance Minister was scheduled to release this year's FES. But shortly after 9 am, it became clear that yesterday was going to be something completely different than what we had planned for. At that time, then-Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned from cabinet with a scathing letter about the direction of the government and the very document she was supposed to release 7 hours from then.
That action set off a storm the likes of which we simply haven’t seen in our federal politics in generations. For hours we were left with serious unanswered questions, ranging from the existential about if the Prime Minister would be forced to resign, right down to the procedural about who or how this statement would be released at 4 pm eastern. Suddenly the details of this statement became secondary as the political drama that had just been unleashed took on a life of its own. That left us watching and waiting to see how the dust might settle.
The day ended with no clear resolution to the future of the Prime Minister. In the evening, he faced his caucus in a closed-door caucus meeting that the nation could watch for about 30 minutes due to the blinds being left open. He then went to a fundraiser and capped off the evening by losing a by-election in British Columbia in a seat he used to hold by 30 points. With the House of Commons scheduled to adjourn for the Holidays today, it appears that resolution may not come as quickly as would normally be expected, especially given the totality of what happened yesterday.
It’s a blessing that what happened in Ottawa didn’t trigger other reactions from the markets, as one would normally expect to happen. But the fact that the drama that unfolded speaks just as much to how Parliament and the current government are viewed by the nation’s economic institutions. Economists at the Bank of Nova Scotia, quoted by Parliamentary journalists, may have put the situation best when they said they “don’t expect any aftermath from the Fall Economic Statement as it’s irrelevant.” Those words are a gut punch that made many in Ottawa sit up and take notice.
While a day like this in normal circumstances would be bad enough, it’s extremely disturbing given the challenges that we’re going to face starting January 20th. In order to have the best chance possible to deal with the serious threats to our country being leveled by the incoming Trump administration, we need our governments at all levels to be at their best. As that drama was playing out in Ottawa, the Premiers were all meeting in Mississauga. It made for a striking contrast of who is more prepared at this dangerous moment, one that we assure you was noted in Washington.
In the end, the FES was tabled, Dominic LeBlanc was named the new Finance Minister (on top of his other portfolios), and the House of Commons will adjourn until late January with no clear indication of what will come next. It’s just as likely that the measures in the FES will never see a vote or happen as the opposite. At this point all options are well and truly on the table; prorogation, the resignation of the Prime Minister and a Liberal leadership contest or another attempt barrel on with the status quo and the confidence votes that come with it.
If yesterday did make one thing clear, it is that this cannot continue as it has been for the past many months. With the threats coming from the United States, the stakes are far too high to have a federal government that is any less than100% focused on the task at hand. It will take a true Team Canada approach, with all levels of government pulling in the same direction, working together. Right now, we clearly don’t have that and that is to our detriment.
In times like these, we believe it is even more important to engage with government, to ensure that they are focused on the matters at hand, and how they are affecting you, your communities, and businesses on the ground. With an election now seemingly more likely to come sooner than later, and with the current drama playing out, now is a time to engage to help bring Team Canada together around solutions. We at Niipaawi are here to help you do that, and we’re always happy to lend a helping hand.
